Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 10.616615 12.431290 14.419709 16.754476 19.414786 22.345417 25.811833
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 7.913643 10.401161 13.403232 17.265700 22.072968 27.826474 35.197425
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 6.207592 9.020940 12.709204 17.832074 24.685657 33.451111 45.407061
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 4.805902 7.652158 11.671352 17.642875 26.145591 37.649329 54.182334
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 3.675429 6.377563 10.466005 16.925596 26.652128 40.481668 61.283362
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 2.884343 5.423929 9.519616 16.362618 27.195136 43.287316 68.473104
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 2.413992 4.880949 9.092569 16.483585 28.702252 47.547915 78.053108
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 1.984612 4.310721 8.509016 16.233846 29.542508 50.807576 86.327101
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 1.791119 4.135384 8.569819 17.057639 32.186938 57.068588 99.699578
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 1.566290 3.847730 8.372166 17.379251 33.981496 62.065898 111.386178
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 1.348984 3.527268 8.055401 17.425633 35.271450 66.293713 122.080043
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 1.169864 3.250663 7.777263 17.496992 36.589869 70.639624 133.237907
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.109841 3.248187 8.082386 18.789165 40.368430 79.672929 153.253229
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.012286 3.134113 8.133388 19.577036 43.276055 87.407755 171.602594
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.920643 3.014329 8.152364 20.298451 46.122024 95.245013 190.674031
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.786649 2.745773 7.780659 20.120686 47.135012 99.746548 204.005964
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.642261 2.406295 7.174792 19.328242 46.782192 101.606928 212.565113
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.530200 2.130234 6.674025 18.700334 46.694280 103.942674 222.131254
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.466456 1.990480 6.504298 18.838210 48.278222 109.686295 238.563674
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.396865 1.808731 6.184924 18.558095 48.890504 113.495190 251.444035
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.374777 1.792034 6.331632 19.484533 52.346159 123.379299 276.911470
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.338163 1.708881 6.267310 19.846051 54.504832 130.673864 297.560073
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.297830 1.597550 6.096666 19.898208 55.927316 136.492741 315.531158